Market Analysis With Megh Mody

MCX NatGas Daily Continuous Chart MCX Natural Gas is outperforming from the start of this year. Price continues to move in a positive direction forming a higher high and higher low. Moving averages are also moving higher indicating that the trend is firmly positive. From late March 2016 prices started moving in an impulse fashion and completed either wave 1 or wave a at 225 levels. Thereafter the counter trend was a 3 wave structure and was also within 61.8% of wave a. Here the possibility of Zizgag is open. The possibility of impulse wave 3 is also likely only if wave 4 does not overlap in the territory of wave 1 which is 225.  As per Zigzag wave c, which is ongoing is almost on the verge of termination as it has gone till 100% projection of wave a to wave b. Any move below 225 will confirm that it is a zigzag pattern. However, if prices continue to remain above 250, then the possibility of 350 is likely. In short, expect prices to reverse and move down till 2

MCX Nickel Daily Continuous chart From the above daily continuous chart of MCX Nickel, it is visible that prices are consolidating near the resistance of the upward sloping blue channel. However, prices are trading above both the short term moving averages 20 EMA (red) and 50 SMA (blue) but the momentum seems to be slowing down. RSI on daily chart has exhibited negative divergence and MACD has already given a negative signal by crossing the signal line from above. Looking from wave angle, prices after completing wave a at 816 in the month of November 2016 fell sharply for three consecutive sessions followed by a rise which is still intact. As of now it is possible that the first wave will be a flat structure as the ongoing wave has retraced more that 61.8% of wave a which was a three day fall. The possibility for the ongoing wave to cross 800 is likely and can also test 816. After testing or crossing 816 to a certain extent, expect a steep fall which can drag prices

Mono wave is a term used in Neo Wave analysis. As we all know that Neo Wave is the filtered version of Elliott Wave analysis. It is the most objective approach to identify waves and patterns. Lets not jump on patterns for the moment and first identify monowave (m). A wave pattern which changes price direction is known as (m). For example: The wave in the box is a mono wave as it changed the direction. The first downfall and the second downfall in the above chart can also be termed as a (m). There are more versions of (m). A (m) can move up or down in a straight line or cannot move up in a straight line. A decisive change in price direction will give a clear picture of (m). For example: