Market Analysis With Megh Mody

  MCX   Natural Gas has rallied till 760 levels and thereby it has started moving in a lower highs and lower lows formation. At present the energy segment has shown some resilience which has opened doors for it to test its previous high. From  2  hour  chart,  prices  after breaking the falling channel has shown strength, it is likely that prices are expected to test the level of 670 over short term. RSI is well above the center line which is a positive sign. As per Wave theory,  the fall from 760 looks impulsive and so I have marked it as wave a which was completed at 602 levels. After that it is moving in form of wave b where wave a of wave b and wave b of wave b is completed. It has just unfolded wave c of wave b. The summation is MCX  Natural Gas is likely to test the level of 670 with support at 627 (closing basis) .

 Nifty Midcap 100 2 hour chart. Nifty Midcap has gained 9.12% in line with Nifty Bank which has also gained 9.94% from the recent bottom made in the month of June 2022. As shown in the above daily chart, the index has shown tremendous strength and it will continue to surge as the trade setup looks lucrative. The entire fall from the significant top of 2021, prices are moving in a lower highs and lower lows. Recently, in a small rising channel the index is showing some strength. This indicates that the index can move near till its previous pivot high placed at 28500 levels. RSI is inching towards the overbought terrain. From 1 hour chart, the index is moving in a higher highs and higher lows and precisely in a rising channel. Recently it is bounced from the support of the channel and has also crossed series of resistances (black horizontal line). Keltner channel which moves well in a trending market, the index has closed above the upper channel indicating a fresh buy signal. RSI sti

 MCX Natural Gas 2 hour continuous chart MCX Natural gas after forming a distribution pattern particularly rising wedge tumbled near about 420 levels. A sideways consolidation was seen in this energy sector, making it as a bullish reversal pattern. From 2 hour chart, prices were moving in a falling channel which was breached thus opening positive possibilities. It was then turned into bullish head and shoulder pattern which was broken on the last trading day of the previous week, which opens further positive possibilities. MFI is in positive terrain and can move towards the overbought terrain. As per Wave theory, prices have completed wave a in a complex correction (a-b-c-x-a-b-c) and has started wave b higher which can move towards 620-650 levels. One can initiate buying of 500 CE which is trading at 66 with target of 105 Stop loss placed at 37. The summation is MCX Natural Gas is positively poised and can move higher towards 620-650 levels with support at 511 (closing basis).

 MCX Aluminum 2 hour continuous chart As seen in the above chart, it is very clear that pries are in stealth bear trend. The metal price continues to move in a lower highs and lower lows and moving precisely in a falling channel. Recently prices were moving in a stiff range of 214-206 levels which was broken last week and has bounced back after making a low of 202. Currently prices are moving higher to test the level of 206, which when done will resume the major trend. RSI has also relieved from the oversold terrain. As per wave theory, prices completed wave iv in a symmetrical triangle pattern and has opened wave v on the downside. This wave can move down towards 195 levels.   The summation is MCX Aluminium is firmly negative as it has a crucial resistance placed at 206 levels. The metal can sink towards 195 levels as far as 209.3 is intact on the upside (closing basis).

 MCX Crude Oil 60 mins chart anticipated on 16th June 2022 MCX Crude Oil 60 mins chart happened on 6th July 2022 In my previous update dated on 16th June I had mentioned that, " MCX Crude Oil is set to sink till 7500 INR followed by 5000 INR over short to medium term." MCX Crude plunged till 7535 levels thereby achieving my short term target of 7500. I had anticipated the fall from 9037 thus gaining 16.62%- Anticipated happened. To view my previous article, click on the below link https://www.marketanalysiswithmeghmody.com/2022/06/mcx-crude-oil-and-5th-wave-truncation.html   Now since my short term target is achieved, I will now look the next waves and how it unfolds to possibly meet my medium term target of 5000.

 ETH 4 hour chart From the above chart, prices are consolidating above its recent low and it seems it will falter as the inverse head and shoulder pattern is negated. This opens negative possibilities as prices can test its lows back again. As far as Elliott Wave counts, as far as equality is in place, it is difficult for the price to move back down and break its previous low. It can retest and then move higher. Wave 5 of one higher degree cannot be in corrective mode either but since it is wave i of wave 5 it can be leading diagonal or ending diagonal in wave 5 itself. For this to be intact it need not break the low of $880 levels. The summation is Ethereum can dip near about $980-$930 over short term which can form a basing formation for this crypto. However, break of $880 will accelerate further selling pressure