Market Analysis With Megh Mody

MCX Silver Daily Continuous As shown in the Daily chart of Silver, prices have started moving lower breaking its previous day low and have also closed below both the moving average 50SMA (blue) and 20 EMA (red). This opens the possibility of short term negative trend. Wave theory suggests, prices are moving down in the form of wave g of bow and tie diametric. The current downfall is corrective leg and so it will continue to take its time to correct. In short, prices of this industrial metal will falter any time soon. The bias is firmly negative, expect prices to test 37000 levels over short term.

Nifty Weekly Chart In the above chart, Nifty is moving precisely in the rising blue channel. However, historically it is proved that whenever, the index reaches near to the resistance of the channel it has reversed and bounced from the support of the channel ( marked by arrows). In the recent encounter, Nifty crossed the resistance of the channel but from past two weeks prices dragged the index lower, thus re-entering it in the channel. This can also be termed as failed pattern. A failed pattern, is when prices gives a bullish or bearish break but fails to hold it. In this case, prices did break the resistance but since it has re-entered bears will be more dominant now. In short, Nifty can move down lower till 10000 levels or even lower.

MCX Lead Daily chart (continuous) After forming a higher high and higher low formation, prices have broken the rising channel (blue). This gives a bearish break in a rising channel. From Wave perspective, prices have completed wave c in an ending diagonal pattern after forming wave b in a triangle pattern. In short, the metal is expected to tumble further near till 155 levels where cluster of supports are placed.

MCX Nickel Daily continuous chart As shown in the daily chart of Nickel, prices are moving up precisely in a small blue channel. However, it is facing the resistance of the upper trend line of the channel thus consolidating at the top. There are high chances for prices to move down in near term at least till the support of the channel. Coincidentally, short term moving average 20 EMA (red) is also placed at that level. RSI have also exhibited negative divergence. From Wave perspective, prices are currently moving higher in the form of irregular flat pattern (a-b-c). In which it is in wave b which is bigger than wave a. very soon wave c on the downside will start. In short, Nickel will tumble to 840-830 levels in near term. Break of this small channel will infuse further selling pressure. 

Natural Gas Daily chart (Continuous) From the above chart of Natural Gas, it is very clear that prices are moving down decisively by breaching its previous day low. Yesterday, Nat Gas made a low of 176.2 and closed near to the low at 177.10.RSI has fallen sharply and it is inching towards the oversold zone. From Wave perspective, after completing wave b in a bow and tie diametric, prices are currently moving down in form of wave c which is impulsive in nature. In wave c, prices are in the last leg i.e. wave v. Wave i of wave c was extended so there are high chances that wave v can 61.8% of wave iii which comes to 172-170 levels. In short, Natural Gas is expected to tumble near till 172-170 price zone over short term.

Gold Daily chart continuous From the Daily chart of Gold, the yellow metal is moving in a higher high and higher low formation. However, prices have arrived near the resistance of the blue channel. On Friday, prices opened with a gap up but closed in a negative terrain more than 50% within of its previous day bar body. This pattern is known as dark cloud cover. It forms at the top and it is more significant when it forms near the resistance zone. Daily RSI in is overbought zone and have exhibited negative divergence which is a sign of caution. As per wave perspective, prices are moving in a double correction pattern (a-b-c-x-a-b-c). Here it has completed first correction (a-b-c) followed by wave x at 28055. Currently it is now in wave a and it is on the brink to finish the current wave. This opens the possibility of wave b on the downside. In short, a follow up action today is crucial. A negative bar will open negative possibilities which will halt the current uptrend

MCX Crude Oil (Daily Continuous) The Daily chart of Crude shows that prices are failing to move higher due to the overhead resistance of the channel. This rising blue channel has made prices reverse earlier.RSI is in the overbought zone and has exhibited negative divergence. From Wave perspective, prices have completed five waves up. Currently it is forming a corrective pattern particularly known as flat pattern (a-b-c). Here wave c is pending on the downside which can move down till 4070 levels. In short, the black gold is expected to move down near till 4070 levels over short term. Concluding that the bias is negative.