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Showing posts from August, 2016

MCX Copper in Double Correction

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 MCX Copper continuous hourly chart From the above chart, the red metal is moving in a lower high and lower low formation and it is precisely moving in a falling channel Recently the metal faced the resistance of the channel and has broken the support today which opens further negative possibilities. As per wave theory, prices are moving in double correction pattern as per the chart (a-b-c-x-a-b-c) After completing first correction, prices formed wave x close to 740 levels and now since all the important supports are broken it is very much evident that prices are poised to falter and can move below its previous low in form of wave a of second correction. The summation is prices are poised to plunge near till 680-670 levels as far as 733 is intact on the upside.

IDFC: Expanding and Contracting Diametric

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IDFC is moving in a positive direction from  March 2016. As of now it has protected the upward sloping blue line which is drawn from the bottom of March till date. I strongly believe that the trend lines are always meant to be broken- it is time for short term trend to change. Technically speaking, the stock have started exhibiting negative divergence in comparison with momentum indicators such as MACD, RSI etc. This is the first indication that the positive momentum is on the brink to diminish and prices are now expected to reverse. The first confirmation will be obtained when the level of 54 is broken on the downside. As per wave theory, from end of March till date, prices are moving in a complex correction. The first pattern which is a seven legged pattern (a-b-c-d-e-f-g) is a diamond shape diametric immediately followed by wave x, then there is a bow and tie diametric pattern which also has seven legs in it. Now the possibility of wave x on the downside is higher or bigge

MCX Lead: Bullish channel breakout

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Remember a channel breakout is a first indication that prices are about to change the direction. Prices which are moving in a falling channel changes the trend once it takes out the upper downward sloping trend line. MCX Lead has given a bullish break in a falling channel, thus opening positive possibilities. This gives a clear picture of basic technicals. As per advance technicals i.e. wave theory, Lead after completing diametric pattern at 107.15 where 'g' is marked moved higher thereafter in a corrective pattern. Corrective pattern has three legs in it. Wave a was a complex one, wave b completed in a running flat pattern and wave c is now open and can move higher in a five wave structure. In short expect prices to move higher till 133-135 levels in near term as far as 125.30 is intact on the downside. MCX Lead Daily chart (1st month contract)

USDINR Revisited

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My last update on USDINR dated on 26th May 2016 (here is the link:  http://marketanalysiswithmeghmody.blogspot.in/2016/05/usdinr-possible-triangle-in-making.html ) I had mentioned that the two year rally is on the way to exhaust and probably it is making a topping process in the form of triangle pattern. On global front, Dollar index which came under pressure this month amidst release of downbeat data has accelerated selling pressure making it tumble from 97 to 94.00 odd levels. It has also turned down the probability of one rate hike from FED this year. USDINR, finally broke the channel thus opening negative possibilities. Prices are also facing difficulty to trade above both the short term moving averages. The direction of the moving average is also facing downward thus giving an clear indication that the trend is down.  In my previous update (the link shared above), I came up with an assumption that the topping process is probably a Extracting triangle or a Symmetrical