USDINR Revisited

My last update on USDINR dated on 26th May 2016 (here is the link: I had mentioned that the two year rally is on the way to exhaust and probably it is making a topping process in the form of triangle pattern.

On global front, Dollar index which came under pressure this month amidst release of downbeat data has accelerated selling pressure making it tumble from 97 to 94.00 odd levels. It has also turned down the probability of one rate hike from FED this year.

USDINR, finally broke the channel thus opening negative possibilities. Prices are also facing difficulty to trade above both the short term moving averages. The direction of the moving average is also facing downward thus giving an clear indication that the trend is down. 

In my previous update (the link shared above), I came up with an assumption that the topping process is probably a Extracting triangle or a Symmetrical triangle. There is another option open which is Neutral triangle. Bearish bets will weigh if prices break the level of 66.00. 

Many analysts were betting for 69-71 levels when it came closer to 2013 high, it can go in a long term- I don't disagree but for the short term I had NOT disappointed you.

Technically, there is a saying whenever prices form a pattern it is suppose to break, In this case the channel was broken which is visible. Now to confirm that the trend has changed it is imperative for prices to break the level of 66 which will discontinue the higher high and higher low formation.

As per wave theory, If the level of 66 is broken, the possibility of Neutral triangle will be the top and the entire pattern form 2014 lows till 2016 high will be (W-X-Y-X-Z).

In short, expect prices to move down atleast till rest of the year, the 64-65 will be the possible new range for USDINR in coming year.

USDINR Anticipated on 26th May 2016

USDINR Happened 


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