Market Analysis With Megh Mody

The common currency surged post ECB meet in the early December meet as the ECB president disappointed market by going for only 10 bps cut for deposit rate to -0.30% where market was expecting -0.40%. Now the common currency is waiting for the FED outcome which is set to release on 16th December 2015. Before the ECB meet, the pair already started to form an ending diagonal pattern and post meet it surged from the lows of 1.0506 till 1.0981 levels. Later it moved in a sideways formation which looks like running barrier triangle pattern (a-b-c-d-e). It seems that it has either completed wave e of triangle or one minor leg is pending. The confirmation will only be obtained if prices move above 1.1045 levels, taking out cluster of resistances.  A move above 1.1045 will open positive possibilities and prices can test the level of 1.1070 followed by 1.1240 levels which is 61.8% retracement of wave a. In short, the bias remains positive for EURUSD as it can test the level of 1.12

GBPINR is moving in a extracting triangle pattern which is a part of Neo wave pattern. The pair is moving in a complex correction pattern.  In an extracting triangle pattern, the major trend contracts going ahead. Having said that, in the below chart wave a of the triangle pattern starts on 13th April 2015 with the bottom of 90.85 and completed wave a at 101.03. It then formed wave b in an irregular flat pattern followed by wave c, which was smaller than wave a in length. Wave a surged by 10.18 points (101.03-90.85) whereas wave c took 8.48 points (105.62-97.14). Wave d came down in a three wave structure followed by wave e which is the last leg of the triangle pattern in which wave a was a diametric pattern followed by wave b and now it is moving up in the last leg of wave e i.e. wave c. Wave e must be smaller than wave c in length. Wave e should surge less than 8.48 points, as of now it have soared roughly 3 points. The resistance for wave e should be somewhere near 102.50 leve

In my previous update " WTI Crude to surge going ahead", I had mentioned that " E xpect prices to move down for short term at $44 per barrel  followed by resumption of an uptrend which can push prices higher near till $53 per barrel". WTI made a high of $48 before sinking to $40 on 13th November 2015. It tumbled to more than 8% on weekly basis. However, the bias continues to be positive as prices are moving in a sideways direction after surging from the bottom of $37 per barrel. As per wave theory, from the bottom of $37.75 till $49.32 the wave structure was an  impulse. At $49.32 wave a was completed followed by wave b which completed five waves in a triangle pattern and then wave c again in an impulse pattern. The following wave is wave x or wave b (if I mark the prior three waves as wave a on a higher degree)  as it is coming down in a three wave structure. It has also retraced near to 80% of the previous rise indicating flat structure. In short, th

In my previous update " Gold in a complex correction pattern", I had mentioned that,    A decisive move below $1155 will open the possibility of $1076 on the downside with the resistance of $1230. Gold after breaching the level of  $1155 plunged and made a low of $1074 on 12th November 2015. The downfall was steep after hawkish comments by FED chair person Janet Yellen who gave a hint for a possible rate hike in mid December 2015, thus making Dollar strong and Gold weak. Gold is moving precisely in a falling channel, after facing the resistance of $1191, prices reversed and moved below its previous low of $1076, marking a low of $1074. The downfall was impulsive in nature as expected. As it is moving in wave Y where it is currently forming double correction (a-b-c-x-a-b-c). This double correction can be then converted into triple correction (a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c) or can terminate at $1074 levels. As of now one leg on upside is expected for gold now. In

On 30th October 2015 Nifty broke the level of 8100 on closing basis which opens negative possibilities. In the previous update "Nifty on the brink to reverse", the level of 8200 followed by 8100 was crucial to give a confirmation on downside. As the index has reversed, the possibility for the prices to sink further is likely. As per wave theory, after completing expanding triangle pattern, prices moved sharply lower which is termed as the 'thrust' post triangle pattern, The downside is corrective in nature which can be plotted as a-b-c-x-a-b-c. This entire double correction can be one bigger correction as well. The larger formation will only be obtained as time passes by. In short, Nifty to move lower near till 7500 levels as the important supports are taken out. The downside target will only negate if prices move above 8300 levels. Nifty 60 mins chart Disclaimer : Please do not circulate this report to Clients and others. The motive for this short

Nifty is currently approaching near cluster of resistances which is long term downward sloping red trend line and 200 DMA placed at 8380 levels. As of now there is no reversal in this index, but the momentum on the upside seems to exhaust. A trend reversal will occur only if the level of 8200 is taken out followed by 8100 which is the previous lows. It is imperative for prices to reverse as it is moving precisely in a downward sloping red channel since the top was made at 9119 levels. At present it is hovering near the resistance of the red channel. However, there is no reversal on daily chart or any smaller time frame. On 60 mins chart, prices are moving in a positive direction by forming a higher highs and higher troughs. As of now it is quoting at the resistance of the upper trend line, it is also failing to cross it decisively from past three trading sessions (EOD) giving an indication there no vacuum on upside. An expanding triangle can also be seen on hourly chart. As

After forming an ending diagonal in AUD/NZD on the monthly chart shown below from 2006 till mid of 2011, prices thereafter reversed and started moving in a negative direction breaking its previous troughs. In the month of April 2015 the pair made a low of 1.000 and reversed its direction. It gained for consecutive three months, crossing its previous high of 1.1304, thus opening positive possibilities. In the fifth month from the bottom, prices made a monthly high of 1.683 but failed to give a trend line break thus reversing its winning streak. Currently the pair is approaching near the channel breakout particularly known as throwback. As per wave theory, after completing an ending diagonal pattern, prices commenced downward journey in an impulse fashion. The last leg ended at 1.000 which is wave v. The current leg is corrective in nature which has three legs in it (a-b-c). As of now it is moving down in the form of wave b, and has retraced 61.8% of the previous up move. Break b