Crude Oil: Reversal ahead of inventory

WTI Crude, yesterday tumbled more than 2% moving below $50 as inventory consensus indicates that there will be a surge in it. The inventory will be released today and the forecast is 0.7m which is more than the previous reading of (5.2m). 

The reversal in prices was anticipated way to early before the inventory readings. Prices also started moving down breaching its previous day low thus giving an indication that a counter trend has started. The up move from 2873 (MCX) till 3464 (MCX) from September till start of October where prices moved in a higher high and higher low formation has been discontinued by breaching the level of 3306 which happened today.

As per Wave theory, the (ii-iv) line has been broken giving an indication that wave v is in place and prices will now move in a negative direction. I am expecting that an immediate top is in place and prices can move down till 3200 followed by 3100, thus breaching the (0-b line) which will confirm that wave b is in place or if not that it will be wave 2 on the downside.

As per Fibonacci projection, wave a of wave b which ended at 2631 and wave b of wave b which completed at 3464 seems o be a regular flat. So wave c of wave b can move down to 100% which falls at 2700 levels and 61.8% falls at 3000 levels.

In short, the reversal is expected and prices can move down till cluster of support zone placed at 3000-3200 levels.

MCX Crude Daily chart (1st month continuous chart)


Phani Kumar said…

Hey, thanks for the information. your posts are informative and useful.
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd

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