Nifty to now test 5600 very soon...

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                                                     Anticipated on 10th February 2013


Happened




We had mentioned in our previous update dated on 23rd February 2013," Nifty will now move to 5820-5780-5750 over short term once 5830 is taken out on downside. The overall bias continue to be negative as far as 5930 is protected on upside."- BANG ON!!

We had also mentioned in our update dated on 10th February 2012, "Nifty will continue to move lower and will achieve 5700-5650 mark. Sell on rallies will be the best strategy one can adopt to initiate fresh shorts.” – BANG ON!!

After breaching 5830, Nifty moved lower and shed 100 points on Tuesday thus achieving our mentioned levels of 5820-5780-5750 on same day.

We were continuously saying that Nifty will reach 5700-5650 from February 2013 after the terminal pattern breakout along with time analysis. We said that Nifty to reach 5700-5650 till 28th February 2013 and it happened post budget where more 100 points on downside was seen and Nifty made a low of 5672 on same day.

Nifty on Friday gave a flat closing in order to digest the fall but that does not mean that Nifty will move in a positive direction, the trend remains negative. Broader markets will come down to test 5600 which is the actual target of the pattern and 200 DMA is also placed at that level.

Nifty recently had formed bearish Head & Shoulders Pattern and gave a breakout on 21st February 2013 thereafter it re-tested its neckline on 25th February 2013and moved lower from there on. The target for the pattern comes to 5600 which is imminent.

As per wave perspective, after completing 5 wave on upside in an impulsive fashion, currently Nifty is in a corrective fashion after giving a break below 6000.  Nifty continue to move lower in triple zigzag pattern (a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c).

Momentum indicator RSI has entered in an oversold zone, MACD continues to give sell signal, MFI is below 50 which is a negative sign and OBV is breaching its previous low which suggests that crucial supports are broken. Darryl Guppy is now in a sell mode after almost a year which clearly suggests that there no way broader markets will outperform.

On the other hand USDINR has started its next leg on upside and we are expecting it to move till 56 over medium term. After completing wave i at 54 levels USDINR completed its wave ii at 53.80 and currently moving higher in the form of wave iii. Now 53.80 will be a crucial support for this currency pair.

In short, Nifty to test 5600-5550 over short term as there are cluster of supports placed at this level including 200 DMA. Also the target of H&S pattern comes to 5600 levels.




















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