Nifty will not respect BULLS

In our previous update we had mentioned that Nifty will move lower till 5700-5650 which is intact over medium term.

As seen in the Daily chart , after giving a bearish break in a rising channel pattern, Nifty re-tested the lower trend line of the rising channel and made a Evening star (candlestick pattern) on 13th February and gave a confirmation by opening with gap down the next day.

Currently Nifty is below both the Moving Averages. Short term moving average 20 EMA is on the brink to give a bearish crossover by cutting the 50 SMA from above which will confirm that the trend will be Bearish over medium term and  will drag down broader markets to our above mentioned target of 5600 over medium term.

Now 5970 will act as a strong resistance as Nifty continue to hover below the lower trend line of the rising channel. A move below 5880 (closing basis) can pull prices lower till 5820 over short term.

As per wave perspective, after completing wave v of wave 5 near 6112  prices moved lower by forming double zigzag (a-b-c-x-a-b-c) and currently it is moving lower in the form of wave c on a smaller time frame. However, a move above 5970 will change the wave structure and it will form wave A as it will complete 5 wave structure on downside (impulsive).

In short, as far as 5970 is protected on upside our bias for Nifty continue to be negative as it can move lower till 5820 over short term. Any move above 5970 will push prices higher till 6020/6060 which is 61.8% retracement of the previous down move (6112-5854)


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