Nifty Retracement and Moving Averages along with Wave counts

-

In our previous update we had mentioned  that move below 5880 will drag markets to 5820 over short term. Nifty on Thrusday shed gains with almost 100 pts and made a low of 5836 on Friday after failinf to cross 5970 on Wednesday.

We had also mentioned that Nifty will come down to 5600 over medium term till February 28 or till March 02, 2013 which is the post pattern target. Now the only concern is the entire fall after the pattern breakout was corrective. For the target to achieve it should be an impulse move as it has to be in sync with time.

Moving averages work very precisely in trending market. We are using 20 and 50 days moving average and we witnessed a bearish crossover as 20 day moving average crossed 50 sma from above which has turned the short term trend from positive to negative. Currently markets are hovering on the support of 100 sma, for a medium term trend to be bearish 50 sma and 20 sma need to cross 100 sma from above.

We have taken retracement levels from wave 4 which is the starting point of the wedge pattern and 61.8% retracement comes to around 5780. So now we have almost 3 levels for the broader markets which can come in coming days.

As per wave perspective, after completing wave 5 at 6112 prices moved lower in a corrective fashion by forming triple zigzag pattern (a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c). Currently Nifty is moving lower in the form of wave b after completing wave a at 5970 which are the internal wave counts.

Majority of the indicators are negatively poised as RSI continues to stay below 50, MACD is in sell mode February 1st week and it is now below the equilibrium, OBV started to form a lower high and lower low formation which is a negative sign.

In short, Nifty will now move to 5820-5780-5750 over short term once 5830 is taken out on downside. The overall bias continue to be negative as far as 5930 is protected on upside.


Comments

Phani Kumar said…
Hey, thanks for the information. your posts are informative and useful.
CMIE
SEBI
Patel Integrated
Pradhin Ltd
13 August 2020 at 14:30
Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

USDINR: Will it cross 83.00?

-
Image
 USDINR daily chart anticipated on May 6th 2023 USDINR daily chart happened on May 19th 2023 Analysis In my previous update I had mentioned for USDINR, " USDINR is expected to open positive possibilities once the level of 82.15 is taken out on the upside which can propel price towards 83.00 over short term and then any move above 83.00 will surge it towards 84.50-85.00 levels. However, any break below 81.40-81.00 levels will negate the upside view." There were cluster of supports near 81.40-81.00 levels and from there the pair has reversed thereby breaking 82.15 levels and made a high close to 83.00 levels - Anticipated Happened To view my previous article on USDINR, click on the below mentioned link https://www.marketanalysiswithmeghmody.com/2023/05/usdinr-at-multiple-supports-and-elliott.html As seen in the above daily chart, the pair has arrived near cluster of resistances which is also the consolidation zone formed from past 6-7 months. If prices move above this level whi
Read more

Nifty in Ending Diagonal Pattern?

-
Image
 Nifty Daily chart Analysis Nifty is currently exhibiting a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a positive trend. While there is no immediate sign of reversal, there are indications suggesting that the current upward momentum may be losing steam. According to the Elliott Wave theory, there are signals suggesting the formation of a distribution pattern, specifically an ending diagonal pattern. However, this pattern is still unfolding, with one leg remaining on the upside, potentially pushing the index to new all-time highs within the range of 22300-22400 levels. Once this leg concludes, there could be a reversal in the trend. In summary, Nifty is anticipated to climb further from its current levels and may reach a new all-time high in the range of 22300-22400. However, after reaching this peak, a reversal could occur, potentially leading the index down to the range of 18000-19000 levels. Join my Telegram Channel :  https://t.me/elliottician1 Join My Twitter handle :  htt
Read more

GOLD and Elliott Wave Counts

-
Image
 Gold 4 hour chart Analysis As seen in the above chart, gold prices shot up after escalating geopolitical concerns. Gold prices are moving higher after making a low of $1800 levels and yesterday it closed well above $1930 levels and it is on the brink to cross its previous swing high, which will indicate that the trend is firmly positive. According to Wave theory, prices completed wave a at $1809 levels and has started moving higher in wave b which is also a corrective structure thereby forming a flat pattern, prices can move towards 80% (minimum) which comes to $2025-2030 levels and maximum it can go till 123.6%-138.2%. The summation is Gold prices can move higher going ahead and can test the level of $2025-2030 levels over short to medium term. Join my Telegram Channel :  https://t.me/elliottician1 Join My Twitter handle :  https://twitter.com/meghmody? s=11&t=LtKvFYlMyQs71k-udwEPgQ
Read more