Market Analysis With Megh Mody

In the Weekly chart of Nifty, the index continues to consolidate near the support of the rising trend line. From past three weeks it made an attempt to break this trend line but managed to close above it. This is an indication that the bears and bulls are still not clear about the further direction for the index. I have shown 8 weeks  Time cycle in the above chart which has worked very well to capture the reversal. After 8 weeks of completion markets have reversed the direction shown by Arrows up and down. At this juncture the 8 week cycle is over and market is ready for next move on either side where I have marked (x?).  It is imperative for prices to break 10900-10850 levels decisively to change the bull trend into bear. Break of this trend line which is providing massive support to the index will accelerate selling pressure dragging prices lower.  

Nifty 15 mins chart The index which was moving in a falling red channel has given a bullish break this opening positive possibilities. After bullish break the index moved in a stiff range. Despite of movies ng in a narrow range prices protected the level of 10900 and as a result index gave close above 11000. From wave perspective, the index is moving Symmetrical triangle pattern. Earlier I thought it is in Neutral Triangle. Now the former one is much likely and if prices hold 10900 then there can be a good reversal coming ahead.

Daily chart of Crompton Greeves and Havells  Ending Diagonal (ED) or Wedge pattern are normally a reversal patterns. ED occurs are Wave i, wave c wave v etc. It is important to see how dynamic prices react  post the completion of the pattern.  In the above two charts of Havells and Cropmton Greeves I have made an attempt to show you the importance of the ED pattern and how prices react post pattern. The above two charts self explanatory.

MCX Zinc Daily chart In my previous update of Zinc I had mentioned that ," A  relief rally is expected in MCX Zinc which can take prices higher till 185-187 levels in near term." Read the full article here https://www.marketanalysiswithmeghmody.com/2019/08/mcx-zinc-corrective-pattern-to-unfold.html As per Wave forecast, prices have completed wave iv of wave iii in extension and will start wave v down till 178 levels. Once wave iii is completed wave iv at higher degree will start pushing prices higher till 186-188 levels and then wave v down near till 175-172 levels which will complete wave c. The summation is prices will move down with resistance at 189 and the support will be at 175-172 levels. A whipsaw action is likely.

MCX Nickel Daily Chart MCX Nickel is one of the out performers amongst base metals. The metal is moving in a higher highs and higher lows. Currently it is hovering near crucial resistance and can relieve back down but will not change the major trend. Elliott Wave theory suggests, prices are moving in a third wave impulse and can complete soon. Once it is completed prices will move back down in wave iv close to 1050 levels. The termination of wave iv will again push prices higher near till 1200 levels.  The summation is Nickel will continue to out perform and can test the level of 1200 after dip in price close to 1050.

MCX Crude Daily Chart MCX Crude is protecting the level of 3500 as it was tested twice in past 2 months. Also 61.8% of the previous upmove (2993-4692) falls at around 3500-3600 levels. I think this will act a crucial support for black gold in coming weeks.  Wave theory suggests, prices are moving in a zigzag pattern (A-B-C) where wave b was completed in complex correction (w-x-y) and managed to end close to 61.8% of wave A. So if it is Zigzag pattern wave b should not go below 61.8% which in this case it is fulfilled. So after completing wave B wave  C will start which can take prices higher than the end of wave A. The summation of the above chart is, Crude is set for a dynamic move which can take prices higher above 4692. I think the range of 4700-5000 is where Crude will move in coming weeks.

Nifty Hourly chart Nifty from past two days has actually moved in the range of 11200-10900 levels, either 200 points up or down. This sideways movement is an indication that market is digesting the recent fall. Once it is done, prices will resume the major trend. In my earlier update I had mentioned that prices are moving in a falling channel. Today, the index faced the resistance of the channel close to 11065-11080 levels but could not cross it as a result it faltered from there. I have not shown the channel here but to read the earlier article you can see 'Nifty Weekly Analysis on 13th August. From wave perspective, Nifty made a neutral triangle pattern. Neutral triangle is a pattern which comes in Neo wave theory. The pattern has five internal legs (a-b-c-d-e) but here wave c will be the longest amongst wave a and wave e. Here wave e has ended today so after Independence day holiday, Nifty will start moving down in a new leg.