Market Analysis With Megh Mody

Natural Gas Daily chart (Continuous) From the above chart of Natural Gas, it is very clear that prices are moving down decisively by breaching its previous day low. Yesterday, Nat Gas made a low of 176.2 and closed near to the low at 177.10.RSI has fallen sharply and it is inching towards the oversold zone. From Wave perspective, after completing wave b in a bow and tie diametric, prices are currently moving down in form of wave c which is impulsive in nature. In wave c, prices are in the last leg i.e. wave v. Wave i of wave c was extended so there are high chances that wave v can 61.8% of wave iii which comes to 172-170 levels. In short, Natural Gas is expected to tumble near till 172-170 price zone over short term.

Gold Daily chart continuous From the Daily chart of Gold, the yellow metal is moving in a higher high and higher low formation. However, prices have arrived near the resistance of the blue channel. On Friday, prices opened with a gap up but closed in a negative terrain more than 50% within of its previous day bar body. This pattern is known as dark cloud cover. It forms at the top and it is more significant when it forms near the resistance zone. Daily RSI in is overbought zone and have exhibited negative divergence which is a sign of caution. As per wave perspective, prices are moving in a double correction pattern (a-b-c-x-a-b-c). Here it has completed first correction (a-b-c) followed by wave x at 28055. Currently it is now in wave a and it is on the brink to finish the current wave. This opens the possibility of wave b on the downside. In short, a follow up action today is crucial. A negative bar will open negative possibilities which will halt the current uptrend

MCX Crude Oil (Daily Continuous) The Daily chart of Crude shows that prices are failing to move higher due to the overhead resistance of the channel. This rising blue channel has made prices reverse earlier.RSI is in the overbought zone and has exhibited negative divergence. From Wave perspective, prices have completed five waves up. Currently it is forming a corrective pattern particularly known as flat pattern (a-b-c). Here wave c is pending on the downside which can move down till 4070 levels. In short, the black gold is expected to move down near till 4070 levels over short term. Concluding that the bias is negative. 

What is an Impulse wave? Elliott Wave is bifurcated into two waves namely:- 1    .     Impulse Wave 2    .     Corrective Wave The waves are labeled in numbers (1-2-3-4-5) in the former wave as mentioned above. The three golden rules of impulse wave are 1    .     Wave 2 should not go beyond wave 0, it can be 100% but not below or above the origin. 2    .     Wave 3 is the longest wave in the impulse wave i.e. (1-3-5) but not necessarily. 3    .     Wave 4 should not enter in the terrain of wave 1. If all the above rules are not met, then the wave is not termed as impulse but corrective wave. Corrective wave are different and difficult to interpret. The rules are different so its guidelines. You can learn Elliott Wave and Neo wave with me on 3 rd and 4 th February 2018. A two day paid webinar covering all the details of Elliott Wave and Neo Wave. Neo wave is the filtered version which I use. The Cost of the two day Webinar is 10000/- spanning more t

Daily Chart Continuous From past one year Copper has given significant returns as it has jumped from 310 to 466 levels. Currently it is correcting from the the recent top of 466 levels. It will be imperative to see that how much it will correct in near future and what will be the post move after correction. Neo wave theory will help to understand the impulse and corrections. From the above chart it is very clear that prices are moving higher in an impulse fashion. Wave 1 is equal to wave 3 which means there is high possibility for wave 5 to extend. Here in wave 2 a flat pattern can be seen. So now prices which are currently moving lower will not make triangle pattern but infact will fall down significantly down till 430-420 levels and will form wave iv (remember intricacy and alteration). Thereafter wave v will start and can be the longest of the three impulse waves. In short, in near future prices will correct near till 430-420 levels and then it will resume the uptren

Daily Chart Nifty Small Cap index  which is the average of 100 stocks have rallied from February 2016 till date. Many analysts are still very bullish for this index and are betting big. Looking at the daily charts many are missing small details which is shown in the chart. From the above chart, looking at the pattern one can clearly make out that the index is forming a distribution pattern. A classical wedge pattern can be seen which is also known as ending diagonal. The post impact of the wedge pattern is devastating and small caps are favorites for short selling after dramatic rise. Through wave perspective, the benchmark is forming an ending diagonal pattern which is a bearish sign. On the smaller time frame, prices are still in the last leg of pattern that is wave v (five). From here 100-200 points rally can be seen which would terminate the pattern and eventually it will reverse (as forecasted in the above chart). Momentum indicator RSI has already exhibited negativ

Daily Chart Hindalco and Tata Steel are one of the best performers in Nifty. However, Hindalco is now nearing to end its bull run. In the span of two years the stock surged from 70 to 270 levels which is three times and market is still positive for this stock, but it is not wise to buy at current levels. Elliott wave/ Neo wave analysis indicates that the stock is over priced and is set to reverse in near term. Classical technical tools like channels clearly shows that prices are hovering near the resistance of the channel. By combining Wave theory and simple technical analysis one can understand the movement of the stock and plausible turning point. As per Wave theory, the entire two year move is a channelized move, giving an indication that the structure is corrective rather than impulse. The pattern is known as triple correction pattern marked as (a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c). The first box is a zigzag, where wave c ends at 161.8% of wave a followed by x. Then  second correct