Market Analysis With Megh Mody

USDINR has been moving in a rising channel, forming a higher highs and higher lows which is a positive formation. Currently it is quoting near the support of the channel and can move up to test its previous highs. The momentum indicator RSI remains above the level of 50 which is a healthy sign. As far as the channel is intact the bias remains positive. As per wave theory, the entire up move from May 2014 till date is been corrective in nature. At present it has completed double corrective pattern (a-b-c-x-a-b-c). The probability is higher as the double corrective pattern can be converted to triple corrective pattern (a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c). If it does then the pair can move up till 62.00 levels or even higher till 62.15. However, if the channel is broken then it has completed double correction pattern and will start the next leg on downside which can test at least till 50% retracement of the previous up move from 58.20 to 62.00 levels which comes to 60.11 levels. In short, a

EURINR is moving down after making a high of 92.33 in the month of August 2013. We have shown you the next possible move for EURINR in our Elliott wave segment. From the below chart, prices is moving in a double corrective pattern, wave a was an impulse wave in which wave v was truncated followed by wave b which got completed at 86.78 in the month of January 2014, wave c was in a expanding diagonal pattern and was completed at 79.52 in the month of May 2014 and then it moved up and has completed wave x at 82.48 in the month of August 2014. Currently it is moving down in the form of wave a of the second correction, which means more two waves are pending. The current wave a can come down till 79.41 The bias for this pair is negative as it can test its previous pivot low of 79.41 in coming trading sessions.

Paris CAC 40 has started its downtrend, as it is now moving down in a falling red channel, breaching previous lows but unable to cross its previous high which is a negative sign. After moving precisely in an upward sloping blue channel, prices eventually has given a bearish break thus accelerating selling pressure. From June 2012 till June 2014 prices has been moving in this channel, but now it is quoting below it which is the first negative sign. As per Wave theory, prices has completed triple correction pattern (a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c) and it has started its down move. The current fall seems to be impulsive and will move down steeply. Any rise in this index need to be utilized as a selling opportunity. In short, the bias for CAC 40 is firmly negative, expect this index to move down below 4000 levels in coming month or so. .

In our previous update as on 13th May 2014 we were expecting Hang Seng to move above 24000 which it did after crossing 24000 on 25th July 2014. The below paragraph was written on 13th May 2014 "Hang Seng was losing its gains after a significant up move from 21137 to 23224. The fall from 23224 to 21680 was a double correction pattern (a-b-c-x-a-b-c), prior to this fall the up move from 21137 to 23224 was a impulsive up move which we have counted wave i (marked on daily chart). Wave ii will be corrective in nature and it seems that wave ii got completed at 21680 levels as it has arrived till 76.2% retracement of the previous up move (21137-23224). Now Hang Seng will start picking up momentum and can move up till 24000 levels which is more than 100% of the previous wave i. This up move will start wave 3 which is strongest, longest and broadest. In short, our bias for Hang Seng is firmly positive as it can move up till 24000 levels in coming weeks." Anticipated on 13

GBPUSD is moving in a positive direction by forming higher highs and higher lows which is a positive sign. In this entire rally from March 2013 to August 2014, prices have not breached its previous pivot low. Recently after making a high of 1.7190 which was 7 year high prices in July 2014 started eroding all the gains and moved below 1.6800 levels. The immediate pivot low is placed at 1.6698 levels which will play a crucial support for this pair. RSI is also in oversold zone and it is exhibiting positive divergence which indicates that the downtrend is exhausting and one should now be cautiously negative. From wave perspective, prices are moving in a triple correction pattern, which means there will be two wave x in between 3 corrective patterns (a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c). Prices ended its first correction in December 2013 and then it formed wave x at 1.5854 levels, then it moved up and completed second correction when wave c was in an ending diagonal pattern. Currently it is moving

On 19 th March 2014 we had published an article on FTSE 100: Triple Correction and Forecasting where we had mentioned the levels for this index and had done forecasting. The reason why we had shown the forecasting is to make people believe that Elliott Wave not only works for short time frame but also works on long term perspective. In this article we had mentioned “ From the below daily chart of FTSE 100, we can see that prices are moving precisely in an upward sloping blue channel. Recently it has bounced from the support of the channel and also there is a time cycle of 15 days which has been working very well to catch the possible top and bottom. Prices are arriving near the time cycle which is on 20 th   March 2014 and also it has shown a reversal sign which is positive for this index. Momentum indicator RSI has also bounced from the support of level 30. This is a very good level as it has earlier bounced from this level (marked by blue arrows). As per wave theory, prices

EUR/USD is one of the most watched and traded currency pair. From December 2013 till May 214 this currency pair has moved in a range of 1.35-1.40 with less movement. Normally when such movement occurs one need to understand that the asset class is under pattern formation. From the below daily chart, it is very clear that prices are moving up in a rising channel formation. The pair reversed from the resistance of the channel which opens negative possibilities. Even prices have given a bearish break in a rising wedge pattern which clearly indicates that EURO against DOLLAR is going to depreciate further. As per wave perspective, prices are moving in a triple corrective pattern (a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c) from July 2012 to May 2014. After completing 2 nd wave x at 1.31 in a simple zigzag pattern, prices then moved up and completed wave a at 1.3832 followed by wave b in a simple zigzag at 1.3304 and wave c which was an ending diagonal pattern was completed at 1.3993 after the statem